The worst of the COVID-19 recession in the aviation industry may be over by 2021, but the pandemic’s impact is not. The path to recovery appears to belong and to wind. Many of the factors influencing the industry’s recovery are beyond its control. The industry has previously demonstrated its resiliency and will undoubtedly recover. But the question is, when?
The aviation industry faces a slow recovery.
Millions of people in dozens of countries had already received their first vaccination shot by early January 2021. Even in the best-case scenario, vaccinations will not have a significant impact for months. The coronavirus has evolved into new and more infectious strains, resulting in a new wave of travel restrictions and border shutdowns. In short, health officials cannot predict when the pandemic will be under control and life will gradually begin to recover.
The economic crisis caused by COVID-19 is anticipated to continue in the aviation industry and other sectors, even after vaccines have significantly slowed the virus’s spread. The economic impact of the coronavirus, according to a UNCTAD report, will be deeper and broader than the Great Recession.
The crisis has cost 300 million people their jobs around the world in estimation. The global economy is likely to suffer significant and long-term consequences as a result of these job losses.
Experts predict that the economy will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021 at the earliest. They are also expecting that the airline industry will recover slowly. While some experts believe it will take until 2024 to get back to pre-COVID levels.
The year 2020 marked the end of what many had hoped would be a long Golden Period for the aviation industry. Rather than continuing the trend of steady growth, the year 2020 marked an all-time low for advertising aviation.
Many people predicted that the industry would enjoy a long period of prosperity. A year ago, the aviation industry failed to predict a global pandemic that would cripple the economy. Could another unexpected event occur in 2021, turning everything on its head once more? Although it is unlikely, if 2020 taught us anything, it is that life can change quickly and unexpectedly.
The Bottom Line
It’s difficult to predict how the industry will recover from this crisis, and it’s even more difficult to predict future crises. However, there are numerous candidates, ranging from the threat of cyber-attacks to political unrest.
What unknowns might emerge in 2021 that could obstruct or facilitate the pandemic’s or industry’s recovery? Indeed, no one can be certain.